The New Subtropical Cities

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Meehl 2007, p.768) is a report developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group 1 that analyses indicators of climate change. The report summary, based on multiple models, states that typhoons and hurricanes will become more intense with higher peak wind speeds and heavier precipitation. Further, the report predicts cyclone patterns will move farther from the equator making cities as far north as 40 degrees latitude subject to hurricane force winds in excess of 150mph. This means that cities such as Washington, DC, and New York could become sub-tropical cities within the next century.The potential for damage to structures these cities not typically prone to severe weather is of concern from several viewpoints. First, there is a large stock of existing buildings designed for lower wind loads that may become damaged. Second, there is currently no change in minimum required building design loads to accommodate predicted increases in wind speeds. Third, few design studio programs focus on lateral-force-resistant strategies, or consider flutter or uplift resulting from wind loads.This paper posits that wind speeds in East Coast Cities from Virginia to Long Island Sound will see a near doubling of wind speeds within the next fifty years along with higher temperature variations, higher humidity and higher flooding potential. The paper compares the similarities and differences between existing and future climate conditions and vernacular architecture in U.S. East coast cities. Design strategies are formed using a holistic mix of structural and environmental logic. Finally, examples of future-design-thinking implementation through an integration of studio and technical courses in the architecture school are discussed. Reference ListMeehl, Gerald, T. Stocker, 2007, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, ch.10, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York NY, USA.

Volume Editors
Anthony Abbate, Francis Lyn & Rosemary Kennedy

ISBN
978-0-935502-90-9